With the MLS gearing up for the big beginning on March 19th, we at End Lines couldn’t help but do a couple of MLS predictions.  Normally I personally try to steer away from doing things like this simply for the fact that it makes it sound like I know what I’m talking about in relation to every team in the league…which is obviously not true.  But in mulling this idea over with my co-contributor, I couldn’t help it considering how excited I am about this coming season, and how much I’m willing to go out on a limb with a few of my predictions this year.  Seems I’m the second to make my posting this weekend, so I’ll encourage you to scroll down and check out Mark’s predictions as well…I’m sure we’ll agree as often as we wildly disagree.  Anyway, without further delay, here are my 2009 Major League Soccer predictions:

My 2009 picks for “most likely to succeed”

First and most obviously I have to pick the Columbus Crew.  The structure of players is all still there, despite much nervous off-season talk.  Only the piece of Sigi Schmid is gone, a large piece though it may be.  But momentum speaks volumes in a league of parity like the MLS, and no one should be betting against these guys to make another run.  Next there’s the Chicago Fire.  The Chicago Fire have too many good pieces not to pick ‘em, but it all hinges on the question of injuries.  Will the injury bug possibly affect this team?  They seem to be pretty reliant on McBride and Rolfe in the attack, and despite some other options that makes them feel shallow up top, but those are two pretty dangerous first choices when you consider they also have Justin Mapp and Blanco as first choices in support.  And lastly I have to pick Toronto FC.  Originally I was going to choose them as my “sleeper” pick of the year, but I just see too many good things in Toronto to not put them here in my list. The acquisition of Dwayne De Rosario was the best pick up of the off-season.  Add that to the addition of Adrian Serioux, as well as the potential contributions of Sam Cronin and O’Brian White, and you could easily see Toronto challenging late in the season.

My 2009 picks for “needs improvement”

For this section I ended up picking two teams that did poorly last year and it certainly doesn’t look to be getting better, and one team that was a popular sleeper pick last year and yet continue to baffle even their admirers.  First up I look to the L.A. Galaxy to continue to slide.  L.A. has two of the league’s marquee players in Donovan and Beckham, and this has ended up being exactly their biggest problem in the last two years.  Strapped with these financial weights, which are made so by the salary structure of the MLS, the team simply cannot afford to move on from the single-player approach to build a team.  They’ve dropped a handful of players who they felt were holding them back and Bruce Arena usually runs a well-organized team, something this team desperately needs.  But unless they find some seriously cheap diamonds in the rough this year I just can’t imagine it getting better for them.  My next pick is the San Jose Earthquakes.  Frank Yallop has done well to attempt to build a real team in San Jose, and hasn’t had the haphazard approach of some other teams, but a position switch for newcomer Bobby Convey may prove too much given that he’s been idle for so long.  Especially since that switch is from the wing to the middle where he’ll be expected to hold the attack together.  Don’t get me wrong, I’m a big Bobby Convey fan, but I don’t think he’s the man to carry that responsibility for this second year squad.  Look for them to struggle until they get it figured out…which is possibly another year away.  And then there’s FC Dallas.  I don’t feel the commitment from Kenny Cooper anymore, Adrian Serioux left for Toronto, there’s been no real change to the off-season revamp…it’s just not in the cards for this team this season in my opinion.  Even Dave Van Der Berg’s addition to the squad probably won’t save this team from sliding further.  Then again, maybe he’ll prove to be what they needed to push them over the hump…probably not though.

Sleeper Pick

My sleeper, or dark horse, pick would be Chivas USA.  They’ve been on the verge for a while now and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them explode this season.  Sacha Kljestan will be out to prove himself to prepare for a move out of the MLS, and he’s been the engine of this team for a while now.   With him on point they’re a leg up on most of the parity of the rest of the MLS.  Ultimately however the question of how effective Ante Razov can still be remains the hinging factor on whether this team will burst through the glass ceiling, or simply remain a promising side.  I guess a more appropriate pick for the dark horse than the obviously potential laden Chivas would be the Seattle Sounders.  This team has been engaging in purposeful and un-expansion-like dealings that could pay off.  But given the fact that they are an expansion team I still would have to say that if Sigi pulls off a deep run he’ll be the MLS’s version of Guus Hiddink.  Of course, it’s been done before…

As for the rest…

Will qualify for playoffs:

Houston Dynamo – I’d never dare count the Dynamo out, but there are too many teams who have progressed passed them, and their schedule is too packed to really compete on all fronts like they’ve been trying to do for several seasons now.  I see them running deep, and ending up at home late in the game.
New England Revolution – There’s a great amount of quality still on the team, but Steve Ralston is aged but still the pivot of the team, Taylor Twellman is a question due to injury and questions of dedication to the team and the league, and the loss of Michael Parkhurst overseas may be one too many losses in a run of them over several seasons than can be overcome to remain a contender.  Unfortunately, New England’s run of dominant seasons (despite zero titles) may be over for now.
New York Red Bulls – NY will have some momentum from last year and from maintaining a large portion of the core of their team, but ultimately all it would take is Juan Pablo Angel to go down for a stretch and they would be in trouble.  Even with him healthy they’ll struggle to replace the service of Dave Van Der Berg to the men up top.
Kansas City Wizards– I’ll never bet against a defense anchored by Jimmy Conrad and backed by Kevin Hartman, but they’ve been very inconsistent in recent seasons and I can’t really say what would change that now.

Will miss the playoffs:

DC United – This team has much quality to bottom dwell, but the reacquisition of Christian Gomez shows they have no other solutions to their problems.  And on top of that it’s an aging team they’re fielding in DC which could cause them to falter late as they’ve been prone to for years now.
Real Salt Lake – Although expectations are running high after last year’s showing, and Jason Kreis has instilled confidence in Salt Lake in the last two years, and rightly so, I ultimately just can’t put them above any of the other high picks without a lot of unexpected heroics.  And who is there to be RSL’s hero?
Colorado Rapids – This is a team with too many questions and not enough leaders.  Conor Casey is good but inconsistent, and they’ve been searching for a few years for the answer to their troubles, but all they’ve done is acquire Christian Gomez only to deal him right back.  Hardly an act that says they really know what they’re doing.

Anyway, that’s my take given what we know now, but who knows how the ball will bounce!  We’ll see just how psychic/psychotic some of these pics turn out come the 2009 MLS playoffs.  Either way, here’s hoping for a great season!

Cheers!